Conservative Response #8 aka “DUH”

According to Think Progress, the “Largest Gun Study Ever”  was conducted and the results state “More Guns, More Murder”.

I would *love* to know the amount of money this think tank was paid to do this study. It’s the most bogus thing I’ve read to date.

It was conducted the University of Chicago Smells fishy already by the National Opinion Research Center (NORC). Alhough it is titled “The Relationship Between Gun Ownership and Firearm Homicide Rates in the United States” its being touted as a relationship between gun ownership and murder – not gun murder.

After it opens with a sensationalistic review of Newtown and the gun lovers suggesting teachers be armed, it says “Studies have shown that in-dividual gun ownership is related to an in-creased risk of being a homicide victim.” which is misleading.

The document states during the period of 1981 to 2010, the prevalence of gun ownership decreased by about 36%, so it is “feasible and useful to study the relationship between gun availability and homicide across states over the entire period 1981 to 2010.”

The methods used, a “proxy” that is the percentage of suicides committed with a firearm, though questionable in my opinion, really have no bearing on anything or any results they find. Sounds like they just want everyone to know how smart they are.

So, here is an overview of their results:

  • the gun ownership proxy was a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates
  • For each 1 percentage point increase in gun ownership proxy, the firearm homicide rate increased by 0.09%
  • After all the measured potential confounding variables … the gun ownership proxy was still a significant predictor of firearm homicide rates

Now, if you’re over the age of about 8, when you read these results your reaction was somewhat like this:

If not, let me explain…

Let’s do a quicker study of a comparable thing. I should stretch this out over a few years and find a way to get paid for it. Our study wants to show the number of people who die of accidental drownings. After stating our methods consisting of “duh” our results would show that owning a swimming pool was a significant predictor of an accidental drowning.

With me now?

So, back to the study…

They go on to say, about their results:

  • found a robust relationship between higher levels of gun ownership and higher firearm homicide rates
  • the correlation of gun ownership with firearm homicide rates were substantial

*See Garfield

But here’s the part that’s the most interesting, that not only did Think Progressive fail to read, every pro-gun control advocate will not read or acknowledge and still use to further their agenda.

Their results show:

  • gun ownership  proxy was not a significant predictor of non-firearm homicide rates
  • the relationship between the measure of gun ownership and homicide rates was specific to firearm homicides
  • no significant relationship between gun ownership and non-firearm homicide rates

I could’ve told you that. For free!

Their main statement, their main point, their main goal was that as gun ownership decreased (by about 36%), and in those places, so did homicide. My curiosity of how exactly they came up with those numbers was peaked. Mainly because there’s no real way of knowing the increase or decrease in gun ownership.

They cite a document put out by the Violence Policy Center that shows, based on a General Social Survey, American households that reported having any guns in the home dropped more than 40%. In 1977, 54% of American households reported having any guns. By 2010, 32.3% of American households reported having any guns.

I have no doubt well maybe a little that this is accurate. The survey, most likely, does show that fewer households reported having any guns.

Reported having any guns…


It then goes on to give their reasons for the decline.

  • aging of current gun owners (primarily white males)
  • lack of interest in guns by youth
  • end of the draft
  • decreasing popularity in hunting
  • land issues limiting hunting and other shooting activities
  • increase in single parent homes headed by women

Not only are these, for the most part, completely bogus or wishful thinking they fail to acknowledge or see that a decline in reports of gun ownership do not equal a decline in ownership. It only equals a decline in the number of people reporting It makes one wonder if the increase in government over-reach and abuse of power is the reason for the decline.

But here’s the kicker and my *most* favorite part…

The document put out by the Violence Policy Center cites the National Opinion Research Center, at the University of Chicago, as the source of its data.

That’s right folks… The “largest gun study ever done” was done by a group that based all their findings on… their previous findings.

Now, if that doesn’t scream reliable I just don’t know what does!



First thoughts or feelings about this post?
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Posted in Conservative Response, Government/Politics, Guns


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